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Indeed, ECB chief economist Peter Praet has warned that a premature withdrawal of stimulus would stall and reverse the upswing, a further sign any tapering is well into the future. “Present loose (financial) conditions also reflect expectations of additional ECB action, this suggests that the ECB will have to do more just to preserve the current degree of accommodation,” UniCredit economist Marco Valli said prior to the rate decision. “Therefore, anything less than quantitative easing extension at 80 billion euros per month risks tightening financial conditions via higher yields, a stronger currency and, possibly, lower risk appetite.” The ECB’s 1.74 trillion euro quantitative easing (QE) scheme is now set to expire in March but the bank has always said that it would run until it saw a sustained recovery in inflation. Analysts polled by Reuters unanimously expect unchanged rates with the vast majority predicting a three to six month extension to asset buys in December. WEAK INFLATION The root of the problem is that inflation is still too weak and may not hit the target for another 2-3 years at the earliest. Though it rose to 0.4 percent last month and may exceed 1 percent by the spring, the rise is due almost entirely to the fading impact of a drop in oil prices and not a rebound in underlying prices. Wage growth meanwhile remains weak, core inflation is stuck below 1 percent and unemployment is high, suggesting that the rise is far from the sustained increase the ECB had hoped for. click referenceLending growth is also showings signs of leveling off, suggesting that banks may be struggling to pass on some of the ECB’s ultra loose policy measures. Indeed, policymakers are increasingly emphasizing the negative side effects of sub zero rates, particularly for banks, suggesting that another rate cut may not be among the options to be discussed in December.
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