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Baker thinks that will decline to about 30 cents a share as analysts revise their estimates. Baker said the margin guidance suggests that “meaningful relative margin improvement continues to elude United’s reconstituted management team.” But he said it is the RASM number that is likely to trouble investors and analysts, although he noted that United’s RASM has exceeded guidance for three consecutive quarters. “While both fuel and ex-fuel CASM guidance are higher than anticipated, we’d have expected a pass from the equity market if accompanied by RASM closer to 2% (which we believe many buy-siders were looking for, despite sell-side expectations closer to flat),” Baker wrote. Cowen & Co. analyst Helane Becker said she expects “choppy trading early this morning,” noting “investor expectations were elevated for United’s unit revenue guidance given recent positive guidance and 1Q guidance from Delta.” For United, Becker has a market perform rating and a $75 price target. Other analysts weremore positive. CFRA analyst Jim Corridore reiterated a strong buy and raised his target price to $86, while Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Linenberg reiterated a buy and a target price of $81. “We see multiple expansion likely as UAL closes its discount vs. peers and as airlines see improved investor sentiment,” Corridore wrote in a note. “UAL expects flat unit revenues in Q1, weaker than peer view, but still a positive trend in our opinion.” Linenberg said unit revenue, which declined 1.6% in the fourth quarter, is improving markedly from the 5.8% third-quarter decline.
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Team CEO Jed York met with McDonough as part of his search for replacements for fired coach Chip Kelly and general manager Trent Baalke following a 2-14 season that tied the worst mark in franchise history. McDonough is the seventh candidate to interview for general manager, joining ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, Carolina assistant GM Brandon Beane, Indianapolis vice president of football operations Jimmy Raye III, Minnesota assistant GM George Paton, Green Bay director of football operations Eliot Wolf and Packers director of player personnel Brian Gutekunst. McDonough has spent four seasons with Arizona and currently oversees the college and pro personnel departments and assists on contract negotiations. He has also worked for Cleveland, Baltimore and Jacksonville during a 25-year NFL career. McDonough is the son of the late Boston Globe columnist and television reporter Will McDonough. His brother Sean is the play-by-play announcer for ESPNs Monday Night Football and his brother Ryan is general manager for the NBAs Phoenix Suns. York said he was open to hiring either the coach or general manager first. He said the primary goal in the search is finding a coach and general manager who can work well together. Some of his coaching candidates already have found other jobs, with Washington offensive coordinator Sean McVay getting hired by the Los Angeles Rams, Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott getting the job in Buffalo and potential interviewee Vance Joseph being hired in Denver before he even met with the Niners. San Francisco also has interviewed New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and Anthony Lynn, who served as offensive coordinator and then interim coach last season for the Bills.
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